"Why It's Time To Buy" According to the Wall Street Journal

Did you see this article in this weekend's Wall Street Journal?  Let me know what you think.

By RUTH SIMON and JESSICA SILVER-GREENBERG

Back in June 2006, when the housing market peaked, the prospect of a five-year national housing bust seemed unimaginable to most people. And yet here we are, with the latest Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller index showing that prices hit new bear-market lows, falling back to 2002 levels nationally and to 1990s levels in some battered regions.

Despite all the gloom, however, there are growing indications that it is a good time to buy. Mortgage rates, which fell to 4.55% for the week ending June 2, according to Freddie Mac, are near 50-year lows. Homes have become more affordable than they have been in years: According to Moody's Analytics, the ratio of home prices to income is now 20.9% lower than the 15-year average through 2010, and 12.5% lower than the 1989-2004 average. A historic glut of homes, meanwhile, has created a buyer's market: There were about 15 million vacant homes in the U.S. last year, according to John Burns Real Estate ConsultingInc.—some 3.1 million more than normal.

Such conditions might not last long. Moody's Analytics predicts that the number of distressed sales will begin to fall in 2013, and that prices will begin to edge upward then. Home building is at a virtual standstill, so the supply overhang isn't likely to get much worse. Meanwhile, demographic indicators such as "household formation"—the number of new households each year—are on the rise, and promise to take a bite out of the glut in coming years.

The upshot: "While we might not see rapid growth in the next couple of years, there are a tremendous number of positive signs that could lead to a rebound," says Anthony Sanders, a real-estate finance professor at George Mason University.

The short-term outlook isn't encouraging. Job growth remains weak, foreclosure sales are making up more of the market, and economists are predicting that home prices will fall more in the coming months.

But the long-term benefits of homeownership remain very much intact. For now, at least, you can deduct the mortgage interest on your taxes—a big perk for people in higher tax brackets. You get to paint your walls any color you wish, without having to clear it with a landlord. And assuming you can buy a home for about the same price as you can rent one, buying will give you the ability one day to live rent-free. Come retirement time, a paid-off mortgage means your monthly expenses are significantly reduced, and you have a chunk of equity to play with.

So what might the next five years look like? Once the foreclosure mess begins to clear up, say housing economists, the traditional drivers of the housing market—demographics, affordability, loan availability, employment and psychology—should take over.

Here is a glimmer of what the future may hold: While overall home prices fell by 7.5% in April over the same period a year earlier, according to CoreLogic, a Santa Ana, Calif., provider of real-estate data and analytics, if you exclude distressed sales, prices were off just 0.5%. So if you are in a market that isn't battered by foreclosures, you may be close to a bottom already.

"The regular marketplace is hanging tough," says CoreLogic chief economist Mark Fleming.

Here is a look at five key factors that will govern local markets over the next several years:

Demographics

Household formation fell during the economic downturn as a weak economy led some people to stay in school, double up with roommates or move in with family members. According to Moody's Analytics, the number of new households renting or owning a home dropped to 578,000 in 2008 from nearly 2 million in 2005, just before the peak of the housing boom.

But household formation increased to nearly 950,000 last year, says Moody's, and should average 1.2 million over the next decade.

That, combined with increased obsolescence and higher demand for second homes, should begin sopping up excess inventory in much of the country over the next two years, Moody's says.

"Whatever the excess supply of housing is, it is shrinking pretty fast," says Thomas Lawler, an independent housing economist.

Some of the uptick in household formation is likely to come from the leading edge of the echo baby boomers, who have been waiting for the economy to recover before striking out on their own, says William Frey, a demographer with the Brookings Institution. That is likely to fuel an increase in demand for both rental apartments and starter homes.

The portion of people moving across the country has fallen to the lowest level since World War II, he adds. That is a sign that many people have put their lives on hold because of the weak economy.

"When things do pick up, there will be this pent-up demand for everything involved with starting a household," Mr. Frey says.

Of course, when prices in healthier regions begin to rise, many would-be sellers who have sat on the sidelines could begin putting homes on the market, muting the price gains at first, says Susan Wachter, a professor of real estate and finance at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School. Even so, she expects home prices to stabilize and begin to strengthen over the next two or three years.

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There also are some powerful demographic cross-currents worth considering. The first baby boomers turned 65 in January, an age when demand for new homes falls and many begin to think about downsizing. "The baby-boom generation pushed prices up as they got older," says Dowell Myers, a professor of urban planning and demography at the University of Southern California. But in the coming years, "boomers will start flooding the market on the supply side" with larger homes, while fueling new demand for smaller properties with more services and amenities.

Affordability

Rising home prices made renting cheaper than buying in many parts of the country. But that dynamic has begun to change: Housing affordability, as measured by the ratio of median home prices to median household incomes, has fallen below pre-housing bubble levels in just over two-thirds of the country, according to an analysis of more than 380 metro areas by Moody's Analytics.

Renting is still cheaper than buying in most markets, but rising rents and falling house prices mean that, in some areas, this won't be the case for long. Buying a home is already cheaper than renting in Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit and Orlando, Fla., according to Moody's Analytics. In other markets, including Dallas, Las Vegas and Sacramento, Cailf., the equation is likely to soon turn in favor of homeownership if current trends persist, the firm says.

In Ann Arbor, Mich., where home prices fell 11.2% between 2007 and 2010, according to Fiserv Case-Shiller, housing affordability has risen well above historical levels, according to Moody's Analytics.

That is good news for home buyers such as Steven Upton, a 42-year-old photographer, who in June will close on four-bedroom brick house on 10 acres in an upscale community in Ann Arbor. Mr. Upton paid $400,000 for the home, which previously listed for $600,000. "It's a tremendous deal," he says.

Before buying a house, it is wise to compare rental prices for similar properties. To be ultraconservative, wait until the monthly outlays, including taxes and insurance, are equal. You also could factor in the tax savings of owning, which would make buying more attractive even if the gross monthly outlay is slightly higher.

Employment

The strength of the housing market depends largely on the economy. Rising incomes and increased employment tend to give more would-be buyers confidence and buying power. For now, job growth remains sluggish: On Friday the Labor Department reported that just 54,000 jobs were created in May, far below expectations.

But signs of how a stronger job market could fuel housing demand are evident in the Dallas metro area, which added 83,100 new jobs in the 12 months ending in April—the largest gain in the nation, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Dallas never had a big housing boom or bust and has benefited from trade with Mexico, a strong telecommunications sector and a central location.

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The opportunities for a job with more responsibility drew Duane and Linda Elmer to Dallas from Des Moines, Iowa, where Mr. Elmer was a banker for nine years. The couple has agreed to pay $415,000 for a four-bedroom, four-bath house with a Jacuzzi and pool. Their Des Moines home, purchased nine years ago for $410,000, is on the market for $390,000. "We are willing to take the loss for the opportunity to live in a more diverse community and to take a job with greater breadth of responsibilities," Mr. Elmer says.

Borrowers like the Elmers who are relocating for job opportunities are a big driver of home sales in nearby Plano, Texas, says Harry Ridge, a real-estate agent. He says such sales accounted for 20% of his business last year.

A similar influx of job seekers is fueling housing demand in the Washington area, where 25,700 new jobs were added in the 12 months since April 2010. Washington was the only one of the 20 cities tracked by Standard & Poor's and Case-Shiller that saw home prices rise both on a month-to-month and year-over-year basis.

Credit

Mortgage financing remains plentiful for borrowers with good credit scores and solid employment histories. But for borrowers who don't fit traditional lending standards, getting a loan can still be nearly impossible. In the first quarter, about 10% of banks tightened standards for nontraditional loans, according to the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, higher down-payment standards are locking some would-be buyers out of the market. Just 35% of renters have the minimum 3.5% down payment needed for an FHA loan on the median-priced home in their market, according to a recent survey by Zelman Associates.

Credit is likely to remain tight for at least the next six months, says Clifford Rossi, a formerCitigroup Inc. consumer-lending executive who teaches at the University of Maryland.

But conditions should improve over time, he says: "There's no question that it will gradually get easier."

That will be welcome news to borrowers like Greg Silver. The 50-year-old real-estate developer would like to buy a second home, but hasn't been able to secure a jumbo mortgage because his income consists of capital gains from sales of the properties he develops. Mr. Silver closed three sales in the past 12 months, netting him a total of more than $25 million, but didn't record any capital gains in 2008 and 2009. Sure, he could use some of that cash to buy a home outright, but he would prefer to mortgage it, get the tax deduction and keep his cash free for business purposes.

"It's a little devastating," says Mr. Silver, who is living in Greenwich, Conn.

Psychology

The long-term case for buying over renting remains in force. Yet nowadays, "People are simply scared," says Aaron Galvin, chief executive of Luxury Living Chicago, which finds rental apartments for wealthy clients.

Mr. Galvin says he has seen a 30% increase in business in the last year, driven by would-be home buyers who can afford to purchase a property but are choosing not to do so.

The portion of Americans who believe homeownership is a safe investment dropped to 66% in the first quarter from 83% in 2006, according to Fannie Mae, the government-controlled mortgage company.

But it isn't clear whether the fear will result in a prolonged change in attitudes, as during the Great Depression, or have little long-term impact, as was the case for the housing bust that shook California and the Northeast in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Eighty-seven percent of people surveyed by Fannie Mae said they preferred owning to renting, though access to schools, control over one's environment and other quality-of-life issues now are seen as the key benefits of homeownership, with building wealth and other financial factors viewed as less important. In addition, 67% of renters surveyed by Zelman Associates said they planned to buy a home in the next five years.

Jeffrey Connor may be a bellwether for the future of the housing market. The 40-year-old finance director at a corporate law firm says he thought briefly about buying a house when he moved to Chicago from Washington in October. But he opted instead to rent a luxury two-story apartment in downtown Chicago for $3,559 a month. Mr. Connor says it will take substantial job growth and a sharp drop in foreclosures to convince him to buy.

"The market is clearly soft," he says, "especially when we consider it good news that the unemployment rate is hovering around 9% instead of 10%." Mr. Connor says he isn't worried about missing out on today's low interest rates and will consider buying once unemployment falls to 6%.

Other buyers are showing less willingness to wait for the absolute perfect time to buy. Doug Yearly, chief executive of luxury builder Toll Brothers Inc., told investors in May that "some of our clients, after waiting so long, are starting to move off the fence and into the market, motivated by attractive pricing, low interest rates and, most important, the desire to take the next step in their lives. The family with elementary-school kids and a puppy when the housing debacle began five years ago now has middle-school kids and the dog weighs 80 pounds."

The Gems of South Orange House Tour

If you love houses you won't want to miss this.  The 2011 Gems of South Orange House Tour is scheduled for Saturday, May 21st, from 11 a.m. to 4 p.m.  Check it out here:

http://sohps.org/2011-house-tour/

"Urbane Flavor Is South Orange's Allure" so says the Wall St. Journal

The article below appeared in the Weekend edition of The Wall Street Journal.  It was written by Melanie Lefkowitz.  It's an excellent profile of the town I live and work in.

Downtown in South Orange, which is about a half-hour ride to Midtown Manhattan on New Jersey Transit.

The township of South Orange village in Essex County, N.J., a farming community for 200 years, became a suburb of Newark and a popular summer retreat after the railroad arrived in the 19th century. Wealthy New Yorkers built grand mansions in what is now South Orange's historic Montrose district, near the 2,000-acre South Mountain Reservation, a popular park.

Today the village retains a quaint and rustic feel. Gaslights and stately oak trees line streets with houses ranging from 80-year-old Tudors, Victorians and Colonials to well-kept historic mansions. The half-hour ride to Midtown Manhattan on New Jersey Transit, as well as South Orange's reputation as an artsy and sophisticated community, attracts young families from New York City, Hoboken and Jersey City seeking suburban space with an urbane feel.

"The beauty of these communities is they have so much to offer, they're very heavy into the arts, and very supportive of the arts, and very diversified in terms of economics and lifestyles," says Mark Slade of Keller Williams, speaking of South Orange and Maplewood, which share a school district. "The proximity to New York City gives people the ability to have a house and a yard... and yet live in the city when we want to, so we sort of get the best of both worlds."

The downside of South Orange's accessibility and small-town feel are its relatively high taxes. Because the village has no malls or industry, the tax base relies heavily on property owners. For example, the annual taxes on a house valued at $500,000 would be about $13,000.

Homes, however, can cost less than in nearby towns with lower taxes. The median price for listings in South Orange is $530,000 according to StreetEasy.com, compared with $622,000 in neighboring Millburn, which has tax revenue from the Mall at Short Hills.

Though prices have dropped during the downturn—according to Zillow.com, sale prices declined about 11% between September 2008 and September 2010—real-estate brokers say the region's easy commute to Manhattan has kept values steadier than in farther-flung spots. "What's keeping this area alive and better than the rest of the world is the train," says Cherre Schwartz, of Weichert Realtors.

The village has been revitalized by new development over the past decade; notably, a mixed-use development downtown that includes the Eden Marketplace. The gourmet grocery store opened in 2008 at a formerly vacant site. The development also is home to the Avenue at South Orange, a 79-unit complex planned as condominiums, but which opened last year as luxury rentals. The apartments range in price from $1,800 to $3,900, and are now fully leased. The South Orange Performing Arts Center, a cultural venue that showcases both national and local acts, opened in 2006 after 10 years of planning.

South Orange is also home to Seton Hall University, a 155-year-old Catholic-affiliated school with a 58-acre campus and about 10,000 students.

"There's a lot for every age, whether you sold your house and want to scale down, or you're a young kid who wants to commute from the suburbs, or a young family," Ms. Schwartz says.

Thanks in part to its pedestrian-friendly downtown and vibrant network of parks and playgrounds, the community of around 17,000 people is tight-knit.

"You have all the benefits of living in a small town, where people are active and involved," says Sarah Macyshyn, of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage, who has lived in the area for 26 years. "Three months after I moved here, I couldn't walk into the village without running into someone I knew."

Parks: The village of South Orange includes more than 77 acres of parks, several of them clustered around the Baird, a 100-year-old building that serves as headquarters for the recreation department. The 14-acre Floods Hill is a popular spot for sledding in the winter and outdoor concerts in the summer. Nearby South Mountain Reservation, a 2,047-acre green space within the nearby towns of Maplewood, Millburn and West Orange, which borders South Orange, includes woodlands, a waterfall and a reservoir, as well as the Turtle Back Zoo and the Richard J. Codey arena. A community pool, with Olympic-size, intermediate and wading pools, as well as deck seating and a picnic area, is free to village residents.

Schools: South Orange is part of the South Orange-Maplewood School District, which has more than 6,400 students. Two of the district's six elementary schools and one of its two middle schools are in South Orange. The two towns share Columbia High School, where 98.3% of students graduated in the 2009-10 school year, with 91.6% reporting plans to continue with their schooling, according to state data. That year, 90.7% of high-school students were proficient or advanced in language-arts literacy, and 79.3% in math, state data show.  (Editors Note: Just want to add that last year 109 Columbia HS students received Advanced Placement Scholar awards, an all-time high.  They included 10 National AP Scholar Awards and one State AP Scholar who was one of only two in the state.)

Local private schools include the Our Lady of Sorrows School, a Catholic school with about 200 students in preschool through eighth grade.

Dining: Restaurants in South Orange range from casual and family friendly eateries to the upscale, including the Above Restaurant and Bar, which opened upstairs from the Eden Marketplace in 2009. Other popular options include Antonella's, a BYOB Italian restaurant, and Papillon 25, a restaurant and martini bar.

Shopping: The Eden Marketplace, a grocery and specialty food store, opened in downtown South Orange in 2008. Both South Orange and nearby Maplewood have several independent stores, including Kitchen a la Mode, a cookware shop. The Mall at Short Hills and the Livingston Mall are located about 10 minutes away.

Entertainment: The South Orange Performing Arts Center, a five-year-old cultural venue, includes both a 415-seat theater hosting concerts and plays, and a five-screen cinema.

I can personally say that South Orange is a great place to live.  My family and I moved here from Brooklyn and have never regretted it.  My kids are thriving and getting a great education and my wife and I have become dear friends with neighbors who have become our extended family.

If you're interested to learn what South Orange has to offer and would like advice about the housing market here, please contact me.  I'd be happy to help. 

Doug 
917 676 2000 
dhuebnerrealtor@aol.com

Why You Should Work with Just One Agent

So I was recently emailed by a potential Buyer client that "they had seen some houses with an agent, but would be happy for me to send them listings and show them houses".  Mmmm.... the dark side in me rejoice and yelled "Go for it, steal that client..." But then the image of Yoda's face, frowning in disapproval, popped up and I quickly dismissed the idea.  And the more I thought about it, the more I realized that while this Buyer thought that having 2 agents working for him would be a good thing, it's actually the WORST thing he could do.  And I'll tell you why, but first a little ground work.

For those of you who may not know this, Real Estate Agents only get paid when there's a closing.  There's no salary from a company, no bonus of any kind, just a sales commission off a transaction paid by the Homeowner who's house is sold.  Which means we agents work as hard as we can to make our clients happy and get transactions done.

And it's easy to see how a Buyer just entering the market can get seduced into having more than one agent represent them.  Let's say you're a Buyer just starting to look for a home. With bank pre-approval done and knowing what your budget is, you check the internet for Open Houses and head off to see some homes.  At the first Open House you fill in the sign in sheet and the hosting Agent asks that you put down your email address so they can send you listings.  You like the Agent well enough so you do.  But then at the next Open House you go to you meet me, and of course you and I hit it off swimmingly!  And yes, yes, yes, you'd love for me to send you listings and yes!, let's go look at some houses together....

So lo and behold on Thurs afternoon you get emails from us agents filled with house listings.  Now more or less the listings will be the same, since all the houses for sale end up on the Multiple Listing Service.  But instead of both of us sending you all 25 listings in your price range and overwhelming you, we cut that number down to what we think are the best 12 or so and have you pick your favorite 5.  So maybe there's a couple different choices in our listings, so one day you go out with me and the next day with the other agent.

Now while you're out with the other agent, they ask if they can show you a house they think you'd like.  You tell the agent thanks, but you saw that house already, with me the day before.  Suddenly EVERYTHING changes.  Now they have to compete with me to get a transaction done and get paid.  Now instead of working diligently to get you the house YOU want, they're working to get you the house THEY want, the house that's going to make them money.  Now time and patience go out the window as the agent feels the pressure to push you to a closing, instead of letting you take the time you need to find the right home for you.

When I'm out with a Buyer and they ask me my opinion about a home I give it to them, warts and all.  I have no problem pointing out what I see as faults with a house.  Now no house is without faults, and I always try to come up with the best way to fix that fault.  Competing Realtors lose sight of that as they whitewash a Buyer's apprehension about a house in the hopes that the Buyers will turn a blind eye to potential problems just to get the deal done.

Generally speaking competition is a good thing, but in this case, it doesn't serve any purpose.  As a Buyer, you don't pay us anything so it's not like we can cut our fee and save you money that way.  And quality of service shouldn't even be an issue.  If you ever feel that an Agent isn't giving you their all, you have every right to tell them as much, and either threaten to fire them, or flat out fire them.  You shouldn't have to work with an Agent that doesn't put you and your needs first. 

Which goes back to why you should use just one agent.  When an agent knows that if you decide to purchase a house, that it will happen through them, they can then relax and focus all their energies, time and effort to make sure that you find the right home.  For me, that's what matters most, having my Buyers living happily in their new home.

It's All in the Vibe

As a photography enthusiast I love images of houses.  My favorite magazine is Architectural Digest.  I can spend hours looking at the photos and reading about the amazing houses they showcase.  As a Realtor I strive to take the best photos I can of the houses that I'm listing for sale.  I often go back to the house and reshoot photos to keep them current or to find a better angle or a better moment, like when the sun is shining through that huge window bathing the house in a warm glow.  Making the house as appealing and as enticing as I can through images is my job.  The old adage "a picture is worth a thousand words" has never been more true in marketing and advertising a home in today's Real Estate market. 


But photographic images are not the real world.  Lighting and composition can create a mood or evoke a feeling.  Like that cozy sun filled room.  There are images that remind us of a childhood memory, or make us smile or bring tears to our eyes.  Advertisers have been using images to great success for years and years.  But again, images are not the real world.  That fast food burger always looks so appealing to me when I see it on TV, but I know what I feel like once I eat it.

For buyers searching the internet images are a huge help in selecting which houses to put on their "must see" list. As a Realtor, this is what I want my clients to do.  But I can't even count the number of times my buyers have been let down once they've actually seen the house.  The "I'm dying to see that house, I know I'll love it!" goes to "That wasn't at all what I thought it was going to be".  Some of this can be attributed to the Realtor photos, you know, the ones that are taken with super wide lens that makes every room look like it's the size of a football field.  I for one really hate those, but to each his own.

But for me, the real reason isn't the misleading advertising.  No, for me it's something much more subtle and intuitive.  For me it's the "Vibe" the buyer feels in the space.  All of my buyer clients will tell you, I talk a lot about "vibe".  According to the Cambridge online dictionary the word vibe is defined as such:

• the general mood a person or place seems to have and the way they make you feel

And that's it to a T.  I always recommend to my buyers to pick their favorite houses out of the listings that I send them, but I also encourage them to look at other houses as well, or I will bring them to houses that I've seen that they might like.  It's important to get in the space.  Feel what the house does to you.  See how it fits.  I also encourage my clients to image their day in the house.  How would they use it?  How would it feel using it.  Picture yourself cooking in the kitchen, entertaining friends.  Where do the kids play? Where do you eat your meals?  It seems like that would be a pretty obvious thing to do.  But it's not natural for buyers coming into a strange house, filled with another families personal items.  It's difficult on an emotional level to displace the current homeowner from their house and call it your own.  Yet it's something that buyers need to do to make sure they get the right home.

On more than one occasion I've gone into a house with buyers who had a baby with them.  And upon coming into a house the baby has started crying for no reason.  No reason to you or I, but there's something about the place that creeps the baby out.  Call me crazy, but pretty much all of the time the baby is unhappy in a space, the adults don't get a good feel for the place either.  Of course the opposite has happened as well, and I'm very quick to point out the smiling, happy baby to my buyers.

I'll never forget my first visit to a particular house that I was going to list.  It was very small, kind of rough around the edges.  The couple who lived there raised two children in the house.  As soon as I walked in I felt it, it was overpowering.  It the feeling of familial love. This incredibly family was so warm and loving that the house exuded it.  It took all of 3 days to sell that house...  I see the new owners of the house periodically and they're still very happy in the house.

So my advice to buyers is to get into the space and let go.  Let yourself "feel the vibe" of the home.  You'll know if it's the right house is for you. 

It's all in the vibe....can you feel it?

Hot New Listing!

Hey!  Spread the word!  This is a great house on a great street!

Come see this charming Colonial that sits on a quiet cul de sac in the desirable Montrose Park neighborhood.

Deceiving in size, this home has 4 full floors of living space.  The house boasts both front and backyard patios, a fenced in yard, plus a blue field stone three season room off the dining room.

Inside, the house has been freshly painted though out.  The kitchen has been remodeled and boasts gorgeous granite counter tops. Fabulous dentil molding decorates the living room and dining room adding a great architectural detail not found in most homes.  There's a working wood burning fireplace in the living room as well as a large bay window with custom window treatments.

The large Master Bedroom has a deep closet, storage bench and huge Spa-like master bath with a jetted tub.  The finished attic with full bath and separate A/C unit can serve as a rec room, office, guest room or a 4th bedroom.

The fully renovated and finished basement carries a Lifetime waterproof guarantee.  French drains, sump pump and an air barrier carpet cushion, all make sure the basement stays dry!  There are new widows throughout the house as well as Central A/C - Forced Hot Air, a home security alarm, a water softener, walk in pantry and a huge cedar closet in the laundry room.

Easy access to NJ Transit's mid-town direct train that offers a quick 30 min. ride into Manhattan.

Here's a link to the Garden State Listing of the Home with more details & photos:

http://emailrpt.gsmls.com/public/show_public_report_rpt.do?report=clientfull&Id=62129677_315177

If you or someone you know wants more information, or would like to see the house, please feel free to contact me at 917 676 2000 or by email at dhuebnerrealtor@aol.com.

Thanks,

Doug

A "Smart, Energy Producing" Home

Okay seeing how this blog is dedicated to all things house and home and not just me unabashedly self-promoting myself as a Real Estate Agent, I thought I'd share this cool house that I found on one of my favorite architecture websites.

The house is called "Home for Life" and it's designed so that over the course of the building's life, it ends up giving back more energy to nature than what it took to produce it's building materials.  Pretty cool hun?  And there's more.  This is from the site:

Home for Life is designed as the world’s first Active House and is a result of a research and design development aimed at ensuring a necessary foothold in architecture in an anticipated sustainable and low-carbon future.

Thanks to 7m2 solar collectors, 50m2 solar cells and a solar heat pump the house has an anticipated energy surplus of 9kWh/m2/year it. In this way it takes approximately 40 years for the house to generate the same amount of energy that was used to produce its building materials and at that point the house will have returned more to nature than it consumed.

The window area of the house is 40 percent of the total floor area – twice the area of a traditional house – while sensors register heat, humidity and CO2 in all rooms and automatic window opening mechanisms let in fresh air. Furthermore the occupants and environment of the house are valued through quantitative and qualitative interviews and measuring. Subsequent the values are analyzed to develop knowledge to optimize the positive impact on the occupants and climate.

 Here's a link to the full article with a lot more photos:
http://www.architizer.com/en_us/projects/view/home-for-life/18552/

I don't love the minimalist interior, I'm a "cozy" kinda guy and like more defined rooms.  But I dig all the windows and the indoor/outdoor feel.

I can only hope that home builders here in this country recognize that this is how homes should be constructed from here on out.  Most people I know would rather see the money put into this sort of technology and live in a smaller home, then live in large, wasteful, energy sucking "McMansion".

What do you think?  Would you live in a house like this?

Real estate sales predictions for 2011

Came across this information the other day and thought I'd pass it along:  It's from the National Association of REALTORS.  First some numbers: NAR anticipates that sales of existing homes, after falling 4.8 percent in 2010, will rise 7.9 percent this year, to 5.3 million, and another 4.5 percent in 2012, to 5.53 million.

The median price of existing homes, meanwhile, rose 0.3 percent in 2010 after a 12.9 percent drop in 2009, and is expected to rise 0.5 percent this year, to $173,800, and another 2.4 percent in 2012, to $177,900.

NAR expects that 30-year-fixed mortgage rates will average 5.1 percent this year, up from 4.7 percent in 2010, and rise to 5.9 percent in 2012. 

The Pending Home Sales Index tracks homes for which a sales contract has been signed but the transaction has not yet closed.  The index fell 5.3 percent in the Northeast in December 2010 compared to December 2009, but rose 1.8 percent from Nov. to Dec.  I personally think that the sales were higher in Dec. of 2009 because we were still feeling the effects of the "First Time Home Buyer" tax credit.

Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, said in a statement, "Modest gains in the labor market and the improving economy are creating a more favorable backdrop for buyers, allowing them to take advantage of excellent housing affordability conditions. Mortgage rates should rise only modestly in the months ahead, so we'll continue to see a favorable environment for buyers with good credit."

“In the past two years, home buyers have been very successful, with super-low loan default rates, partly because of stable home prices during that time. That trend is likely to continue in 2011 as long as there is sufficient demand to absorb inventory,” Yun said. “The latest pending sales gain suggests activity is very close to a sustainable, healthy volume of a mid-5 million total annual home sales. However, sales above 6 million, as occurred during the bubble years, is highly unlikely this year.”

You can take all that info for what it's worth. I've never been much of a numbers guy and NAR stats encompass huge geographical regions, while Real Estate really needs to be talked about on the local level.

My gut tells me that this Spring is going to be very busy.  Buyers and Sellers who've been holding back or waiting for things to get better are going to either realize that "now's the time" or have gotten tired of waiting and are ready to move forward.

Next weekend officially starts the Spring season and soon inventory will swell.  I myself have a new listing scheduled to come on the market and have it's first open house next weekend.  Houses that are priced right and positioned properly for the market will sell quickly and dare I say, with multiple offers.  While homes that are overpriced and unprepared will languish. These are the houses that drag down the numbers and cloud the true nature of the market.  Note to local Home Owners, if you're thinking of selling your house, read my last post.  I took clients to see 7 houses on Saturday, only 3 were properly positioned to sell.

So reeve your engines and plug in the GPS, it's time to get things started!

The Right Way to Sell Your Home

"Dude, just tell me what I have to do.  I just want to sell this house as fast as possible." Slight pause.  "But I don't want to give it away."

Makes sense right?  As a Realtor that's basically what I hear from every Home Owner I talk to that's looking to sell their house.  And that's my job, that's why you hire me.  BUT....  You have to hire me sooner, rather than later.  Doing that makes all the difference in the world.  I'll explain that in a minute.  First things first.  Because the very first question you as a Home Owner have to ask is, "Do I really want to sell my house?  Am I going to make a commitment to selling my house?"

There are many reasons why people chose to sell their homes.  Some families are using the historic low interest rates and lower house values to their advantage by "buying up" to a bigger home. I have friends who are doing this (ask me why this is great idea).  Other "empty nesters" are ready to downsize.  Having to maintain a large family home that only two people occupy can be a lot of work and isn't very cost effective.  Other reasons houses need to be sold are job relocation, loss of income, divorce, death of the owner, foreclosure, or a more timely reason, people are tired of the harsh snowy winters and are ready to move to a more temperate climate.

Whatever reason you have for selling your home the first question you need to ask yourself is "how motivated am I"?  It takes a lot of work, patience and resolve to sell your home in today's market.  If your just testing the market to "see what happens", your really wasting your time.

It's a buyers market out there.  There are a lot more houses on the market than there are buyers so you have to be willing to spend some money and do some work to get your house ready for market.  But what exactly does that entail?  What do you have to do to get buyers to put your home on their "must see" list?

That's where I come in.  Once you've resolved to sell your home call in a Realtor.  If you live in Essex County NJ, that phone call should only go to one person...me.  Don't do anything else.  Resist the temptation to undertake a home renovation, and then show it to me, or another Realtor.  Let me go through the house and work with you on what needs to be done so that your house can stand out from the competition.  I can also advise you as to what repairs and renovations need or DON'T need to be done.

You may think that it's a great idea to have a full bath on the main floor of your house, but unless you have a bedroom near-by it's an unwarranted expense.  I was once asked by a prospective seller to come evaluate their home.  Their contractor had convinced them to turn the powder room off the dining room into a full bath and so, to keep their budget in tact, they forewent putting in a real granite counter top and instead put in a faux granite laminate one.  A really poor decision and one they could have avoided if they spoke to me sooner.  I can't imagine that shower getting much use, while a granite counter adds a great aesthetic to be enjoyed everyday.  As well as something most buyers expect to see in today's market.

So how much money should you spend in preparing your home for the market?

As little as possible.  There's a big difference between making minor and inexpensive "polishes" and "touch-ups" to your house, such as new kitchen pulls on cabinets and a fresh coat of neutral paint in the living room, and doing extensive and costly renovations, like installing a new kitchen.

As a Realtor familiar with your neighborhood, I can tell you what buyers' expectations will be and more importantly can go over the numbers with you.  Knowing what your house will sell for, deducting all the expenses, understanding what repairs or renovations will cost and how they'll pay off, all leads to you maximizing your profit, managing your expectations and being happy on the day of the closing.  Ultimately that's my real job, that's what I strive for, making you happy.

The Home Owners of the house below are doing it right.  Once they realized they were selling they contacted me.  They're doing a major update of the kitchen, painting the whole house and fixing what needs to be fixed.  I was there every step of the way with them; going over the numbers, walking through with the contractor, helping them decide what upgrades needed to be done or not, based on buyers expectations and what list price the market would bear for this particular neighborhood.

If you're thinking that you'd like to put your home up for sale, or would like to know how much money you would make if you sell your home, please contact me.  I'd love to come see your house and give you a free consultation.

"Snowman Realtor" built by my sons, Rock & Grant.

Last Year's Housing Numbers for Maplewood & South Orange, NJ

With the Holidays behind us and the snow accumulating faster than the national debt and keeping me house bound, I've finally found the time to research the housing sales numbers for last year.  In addition I looked at years 2009 & 2006 to compare numbers to see where we stand historically.

Last year started off strong, with most of us Agents helping first time home buyers take advantage of the goverment tax credit.  But quickly after that ended, say mid May, the market died.  Buyers were suddenly scarce and the houses that didn't get picked for the tax credit dance, sat somber and quiet, yet hopeful things would bounce back.  And at the oddest time they did.  August and September are usually quiet housing months, what with people busy with vacations and the beginning of the school year.  Most folks want to be settled in their nests, not off buying new ones.  But indeed the market picked back up in those months and while not as busy as the first five months of the year, there was a fairly steady business until the holidays.  Most of the houses sold during the year were middle to lower budgeted homes.  Lets look at 2010*.

In Maplewood 543 houses came on the market during the year.  247 of them sold and in an average Days On the Market of 61 days. The sales price to list price percentage was 100%.
The Average Sales Price:  $496,891.00
The Median Sales Price:   $505,000.00

In South Orange 408 houses came on the market during the year. 160 of them sold and in an average Days On the Market of 74 days.  The sale price to list price percentage was 96%.
The Average Sales Price:  $519,998.00
The Median Sales Price:   $492,000.00

So let's compare those numbers with the ones for 2009:

Maplewood saw:
460 Listings - 234 Sold - 68 DOM - 97% sp/lp
Average Sales Price: $476,220.00
Median Sales Price:  $475,000.00

South Orange saw:
374 Listings - 151 Sold - 76 DOM - 95% sp/lp
Average Sales Price: $530,707.00
Median Sales Price:  $500,000.00

And to put it in perspective, lets look at the numbers at the height of the market in 2006:

Maplewood:
541 Listings - 344 Sold - 56 DOM - 99% sp/lp
Average Sales Price: $545,590.00
Median Sales Price:  $495,000.00

South Orange:
452 Listings - 252 Sold - 56 DOM - 98% sp/lp
Average Sales Price: $666,512.00
Median Sales Price:  $620,000.00

The numbers here for South Orange in 2006 seem high and looking at the break down it seems a quarter of homes sold during that year went for $750K or higher, a segment of the market that has been suffering the last year or more.  An easier quick look:

Maplewood Average Sales price:
2010  $496,891.00
2009  $476,220.00
2006  $544,590.00

South Orange Average Sales price: 
2010  $519,998.00
2009  $530,707.00
2006  $666,512.00

In the in the first 25 days of this new year, 55 new hopeful houses have hit the market looking for that right buyer.  Now this is where numbers can be deceiving, see a few of these 55 homes are houses that were taken off the market before the holidays and have just been re-listed.  Or they're houses that were withdrawn for a day to have their "Days On the Market" odometer reset to 0 to make them look like new listings.  Now if only the Realtor would replace the picture of the front of the house taken last summer to one of the home covered in snow, they might get away with it.  :)  Still, many of these great houses are new to the market and it seems to me that even with all the snow, there are buyers out there right now looking.  But those sales will be in next years numbers.


*The figures are from the Garden State Multiple Listing Service.