Real estate sales predictions for 2011

Came across this information the other day and thought I'd pass it along:  It's from the National Association of REALTORS.  First some numbers: NAR anticipates that sales of existing homes, after falling 4.8 percent in 2010, will rise 7.9 percent this year, to 5.3 million, and another 4.5 percent in 2012, to 5.53 million.

The median price of existing homes, meanwhile, rose 0.3 percent in 2010 after a 12.9 percent drop in 2009, and is expected to rise 0.5 percent this year, to $173,800, and another 2.4 percent in 2012, to $177,900.

NAR expects that 30-year-fixed mortgage rates will average 5.1 percent this year, up from 4.7 percent in 2010, and rise to 5.9 percent in 2012. 

The Pending Home Sales Index tracks homes for which a sales contract has been signed but the transaction has not yet closed.  The index fell 5.3 percent in the Northeast in December 2010 compared to December 2009, but rose 1.8 percent from Nov. to Dec.  I personally think that the sales were higher in Dec. of 2009 because we were still feeling the effects of the "First Time Home Buyer" tax credit.

Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, said in a statement, "Modest gains in the labor market and the improving economy are creating a more favorable backdrop for buyers, allowing them to take advantage of excellent housing affordability conditions. Mortgage rates should rise only modestly in the months ahead, so we'll continue to see a favorable environment for buyers with good credit."

“In the past two years, home buyers have been very successful, with super-low loan default rates, partly because of stable home prices during that time. That trend is likely to continue in 2011 as long as there is sufficient demand to absorb inventory,” Yun said. “The latest pending sales gain suggests activity is very close to a sustainable, healthy volume of a mid-5 million total annual home sales. However, sales above 6 million, as occurred during the bubble years, is highly unlikely this year.”

You can take all that info for what it's worth. I've never been much of a numbers guy and NAR stats encompass huge geographical regions, while Real Estate really needs to be talked about on the local level.

My gut tells me that this Spring is going to be very busy.  Buyers and Sellers who've been holding back or waiting for things to get better are going to either realize that "now's the time" or have gotten tired of waiting and are ready to move forward.

Next weekend officially starts the Spring season and soon inventory will swell.  I myself have a new listing scheduled to come on the market and have it's first open house next weekend.  Houses that are priced right and positioned properly for the market will sell quickly and dare I say, with multiple offers.  While homes that are overpriced and unprepared will languish. These are the houses that drag down the numbers and cloud the true nature of the market.  Note to local Home Owners, if you're thinking of selling your house, read my last post.  I took clients to see 7 houses on Saturday, only 3 were properly positioned to sell.

So reeve your engines and plug in the GPS, it's time to get things started!